Kerry/Edwards Ticket Polls Higher than Chimp/Dick From Day ONE!

Kerry-Edwards Pulls In Ahead of Bush-Cheney 48%-46%; No Big Bounce for Kerry; Country Still Evenly Divided in Red and Blue States; Nearly One in Ten Likely Voters Say that “Their Vote is Not Counted Accurately,” New Zogby America Poll Reveals

The newly announced Democratic Presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards enters the race with a two point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney (48%-46%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The poll of 1008 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday (July 6-7, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Ticket %
July 6-7

Kerry-Edwards
48

Bush-Cheney
46

Undecided
5

In a one on one match-up with the President, Kerry leads by two points (46%-44%), with 7% undecided. Kerry shows no significant bounce here in spite the recent announcement of his vice-presidential running mate.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners two percentages points when he is added into the 3-way race. Kerry’s and Bush’s percentages are virtually unchanged from last month. Similar to the showing in the two-way race, Kerry holds a two-point lead over the President (47% to 45%).

Overall approval of President Bush’s job performance moved up two points this month to 49%, with more than half of respondents expressing disapproval of the Bush administration’s performance on the economy (59%); foreign policy (54%); health care (68%); education (63%); and the environment (60%).

The majority of respondents continue to say that the country is headed on the wrong track (48%), while 47% feel the US is on the right track. This response has virtually remained unchanged over the last three months.

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) continues say that it is "time for someone new."
In the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry-Edwards receives 50% of support, as compared to Bush-Cheney with 42%. In the Red States, Bush-Cheney is favored by 50%, while Kerry-Edwards receives 45% support.

Kerry-Edwards is preferred over Bush-Cheney in the Eastern (52% - 38%), and the Central Great Lakes (47%- 45%) regions, while Bush-Cheney leads in the South (50%- 47%) and the Western (50%-44%) region.

In terms of voter ideology, Kerry-Edwards is favored over Bush-Cheney among progressives (77%-21%), liberals (83%-12%), and moderates (59%-34%), while Bush-Cheney is favored over Kerry-Edwards among conservatives (76%- 19%).

Kerry-Edwards is preferred over Bush-Cheney among voters 18-29 years of age (59%-37%); 65 and older (49%-46%); women (52%- 42%); and singles (62%-26%). Bush-Cheney is favored among voters 50-64 years of age (49%-46%); men (50%-43%); and married couples (53%-42%).

Over half (56%) say they disapprove of Bush’s job performance regarding the war in Iraq – a fifteen-point drop within the last six-months. More than two in five (44%) rate his performance as positive.

Respondents remain evenly divided on the value of the war. When asked if the war in Iraq was “worth it”, half (50%) expressed their support – down six percentage points from last month. While nearly one in tw0 (49%) oppose the war.

Kerry-Edwards is preferred over Bush-Cheney among voters 18-29 years of age (59%-37%); 65 and older (49%-46%); women (52%- 42%); and singles (62%-26%). Bush-Cheney is favored among voters 50-64 years of age (49%-46%); men (50%-43%); and married couples (53%-42%).

Nearly one in three (27%) identified jobs and the economy the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); health care (13%); the war in Iraq (12%); and education (8%). * This month the war in Iraq drops to back to become the fourth important issue.

Pollster John Zogby: “This is not a big bounce electorate. Let me repeat again: we are a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened. What happened in the past 48 hours is that Undecideds are back down to the 5%-7% range. Kerry’s announcement of Edwards as his running mate brought some of those who defected into the undecided camp in June back into the fold. At the same time, it seems to have also re-energized Bush supporters. Where we are today is probably where we are going to be through much of the summer, if not through most of this campaign.

“Bush has lost his edge on the war on terrorism and his job performance numbers on foreign policy, health care, the economy, the environment, and the war in Iraq are dismal. While his overall job performance is up to 49% -- bolstered perhaps by his personal favorable rating of 56% -- his re-elect is only 43%. And his favorable rating of 56% favorable/43% unfavorable is pretty much the same as Kerry’s 54% to 42%. No advantage here for either candidate.

“Kerry’s lead was actually double digits the first night of polling in the immediate aftermath of the Edwards Moment – but it quickly dissipated as the electorate settled back into its evenly matched warring camps. Bush leads in the Red States by only 5 points, while Kerry leads in the Blue States by only 8 points. The choice of Edwards has reduced the President’s lead in the South down to only 3 points – 50% to 47%.

“There are some notable gaps in this poll: Bush leads among married voters 53% to 42%, while Kerry’s lead among singles is 62% to 26%. Kerry’s lead among 18-24 year olds in 59% to 40%, and among 25-34 year olds it is also 59% to 40% -- but the President’s support increases with age: 46% to 45% among 35-49 year olds, 50% 50 45% among 55-69 year olds, and among those over 70 it is 50% to 44%. Remember that 55-69 year olds are mainly the most conservative of age cohorts, so the President’s lead here is not enough for him.

“The economy remains the top issue, but the war in Iraq has slipped to fourth place behind the war on terrorism and health care. These issues do not favor the President. Support for the war in Iraq is only 50% while 49% oppose it. Only 42% say that the American lives lost was worth it.

“While 92% say that they understand that their vote matters, only 83% believe that their vote is accurately counted. Nine percent doubt their vote is counted accurately. This group includes 20% of 18-24 year olds, 12% of 25-34 year olds, 13% of union voters, 18% of African Americans, and 13% of Hispanics. This is a significant degree of alienation and we will be tracking this throughout the campaign to see if any progress is made.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 1008 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Tuesday, July 6 through Wednesday, July 7. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

WWW.ZOGBY.COM

(NLTCP blog Believes Zogby...this is the only pollster who showed Al Gore winning on election day, 2000. The others, CNN being worse than Fox, showed Gore losing by more than 3%)