Guardian Unlimited Puts Gallup In The Ash Bin As Do We At NLTCP.com
Guardian Unlimited:
"The Gallup poll for CNN-USA Today has George Bush 8% ahead (a clear lead) but the Reuters-Zogby daily tracker ties the president and his challenger on 45%. The complication here is that Mr Bush has lost a 48% lead in the latter poll since Friday to John Kerry and a growing number of undecideds, but he pulled back from being 1% behind last week in the former.
So, what is going on?
First of all, some people have a few problems with Gallup. Salon points out that the pollster gave Mr Bush a 13% lead over Al Gore at this stage in 2000 (who went on to win more votes) and weights its sample on the assumption that more Republicans vote than Democrats. It adds that this is the opposite of what happens in what it likes to call the 'reality-based world'.
Second is that the headline figures may be meaningless. John Zogby argues that the least useful question a pollster can ask is who a voter will vote for, and came closest to predicting 2000 by asking his sample to imagine they were in the Wizard of Oz and had to choose between a brainy but heartless tin man (Mr Gore) and an all-heart but no brains scarecrow (Mr Bush). The two characters were tied. He tips to the tin man this time around."
Link...
"The Gallup poll for CNN-USA Today has George Bush 8% ahead (a clear lead) but the Reuters-Zogby daily tracker ties the president and his challenger on 45%. The complication here is that Mr Bush has lost a 48% lead in the latter poll since Friday to John Kerry and a growing number of undecideds, but he pulled back from being 1% behind last week in the former.
So, what is going on?
First of all, some people have a few problems with Gallup. Salon points out that the pollster gave Mr Bush a 13% lead over Al Gore at this stage in 2000 (who went on to win more votes) and weights its sample on the assumption that more Republicans vote than Democrats. It adds that this is the opposite of what happens in what it likes to call the 'reality-based world'.
Second is that the headline figures may be meaningless. John Zogby argues that the least useful question a pollster can ask is who a voter will vote for, and came closest to predicting 2000 by asking his sample to imagine they were in the Wizard of Oz and had to choose between a brainy but heartless tin man (Mr Gore) and an all-heart but no brains scarecrow (Mr Bush). The two characters were tied. He tips to the tin man this time around."
Link...
posted by A. J. Franklin @ 18:55
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home